Between 2009 and 2021, over 7,200 horses died or were euthanized due to racing-related injuries. Using horse profile data and horse tracking data from the NYRA, we hoped to identify horses who under-raced between 2019 and 2021, cluster movement profiles for horses who raced in 2019 New York races, and discover whether certain profiles were more associated with injured horses.
By fitting a negative binomial model on horse profile data and performing residual analysis, we discovered that at least 251 horses under-raced between 2019 and 2021. Additionally, clustering horse movement profiles revealed that a horse’s speed profile is most associated with its injury status: specifically, greater variation in speed is more associated with injury.
Done in through Carnegie Mellon’s Sports Analytics Camp and via an external partnership with Joseph Appelbaum at the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association.